An expert with infectious diseases from Harvard University has pointed out the death rate from H1N1 is no worse than regular flu to a group of experts brought together by the US Institute of Medicine. The US government puts together something called the Pandemic Severity Index. Based on the qualifications for that rating, swine flu has a death rate lower than .1%. That puts it in the lowest level, Category 1. The actual death rate, as he computes it, is between .007% and .045%. While China gets the headlines with its concerns against swine flu we actually have to point to the small buyers as the prime problem. We monitor the top eight buyers of US pork and group all the small buyers as Other. That group which is responsible for 13% of our exports was buying larger than last year volumes from January through March then abruptly fell to below last year levels from April (when H1N1 hit) through current. Perhaps fact based news like this story will help these no-name countries get back to business.
Rich Nelson
Allendale Director of Research
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