As Crops Improve, Trade Stays Focused on Demand

August 3, 2020

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 3, 2020.

Grain Markets were mixed with corn and soybean futures higher on weather outlooks, while wheat futures slid lower on ample global supplies as the Brazilian wheat crop has the potential to be over 7 million tons this year (a record high).

If you missed our Grain and Livestock outlooks this week, recordings are still available for you to watch. Call us at 800-262-7538 to get access.

Last week, September corn futures were down 11.00 cents, September soybeans were down 8.75 cents, September wheat down 8.75 cents, September soymeal was unchanged and September soyoil was up 56 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting corn crop conditions to gain 1% to 73% GTE (72% last week, 67% average).  Soybean crop conditions expected to gain 1% to 73% GTE (72% last week, 67% average).  Hard red spring wheat is expected to be stable at 70% GTE (70% GTE last week).  Hard red spring wheat harvest seen between 9-11% complete (10% average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position short -143,280 corn contracts, long +62,161 soybean contracts, long +1,699 wheat contracts, long +33,622 live cattle contracts and long +10,721 lean hog contracts.

Private exporters reported export sales on Friday to the USDA of 114,300 metric tons of corn to Mexico.  There was also 222,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to Philippines.

U.S. Ag Department has identified more than a dozen plant species ranging from morning glories to mustard in bags of unsolicited seeds arriving in the mailboxes of thousands of Americans, mostly postmarked from China.  Another concern is what appears to be an unknown coating, possibly insecticide or fungicide on the seeds, said Robin Pruisner, state seed control official at the Department of Ag and Land Stewardship in Iowa.

U.S. biodiesel production rose to 147 million gallons in May (144 million gallons a month earlier), the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.  Soybean oil remained the largest biodiesel feedstock, with 778 million lbs. used in May (70% of the total). In April, soyoil used in biodiesel production was 672 million lbs.

USDA Soybean crush report will be released this afternoon, trade is looking for June soybean crush at 177.8 million bushels and oil stocks estimate a 111 million bushel decline to 2.225 billion lbs. (2.336 billion lbs. last month).

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.46 and select down 1.61. The Feeder cattle index is 138.58.  Pork cut-out values were down 2.26.

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