Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 16, 2020.
Grain Market traders look to see if higher pricing will continue today as weather concerns pushed corn and wheat to multi-month and multi-year highs yesterday. Demand will be in focus as well today as holiday-delayed data is released.
Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 AM CDT this morning, one day late due to Monday’s federal holiday. Corn exports are expected at 600,000 – 1,200,000 tonnes, soybeans 1,500,000 – 2,200,000 tonnes, and wheat 200,000 – 600,000 tonnes.
The Brazilian government is set to discuss on Friday a proposal that would temporarily eliminate tariffs on corn and soy imports from countries outside the Mercosur trade block, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. (Reuters)
EIA ethanol production rose from 923,000 barrels per day the prior week to 937,000. It is normal for production to rise seasonally at this time. Year/year went from -4.2% to now -3.5%.
Soybean crushing among NOPA members in September totaled 161.491 million bushels. This was over the 160.795 trade estimate. It is 5.8% over last year. Last year crush was responsible for 55% of soybean demand.
Strategie Grains raised its estimate for soft wheat exports from the EU and Britain from 23.0 million tonnes last month to now 25.0 million as a rise in prices for Black Sea wheat is making EU wheat more competitive.
The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its wheat production estimate from 18 to now 17 million tonnes. USDA on 10/9 lowered their estimate from 19.5 to 19.0.
Economic reports out today include Retail Sales at 7:30 AM CDT and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:00.
For the week ended 10/3, steer carcass weights were unchanged from the prior week at 924 lbs. Heifer carcass weights increased by 5 lbs. to 843. Barrow/gilt carcass weights grew 1 lb. from the prior week at 212. On a year/year basis hog weights increased from +1.0% to now +1.4%.
A drying US Plains is getting a little more trade interest. This may continue to pressure lighter weight feeders.
The 78.42 October contract expiration will be corrected to a settlement of 78.49 using the Wednesday cash hog trade data. This is the highest October expiration for the LHI since 2014!
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.66 and select down 2.77. The Feeder cattle index is 140.91. Pork cut-out values were up 4.85.