Dry Weekend Weather Catapults Grain Futures

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 31, 2020.

Grain Markets pushed higher as dry, hot weather persisted in the Midwest states over the weekend.  Trade this week will be focused on weather forecasts as crop yields pullback from what was predicted to be a record crop this year.

Allendale’s Nationwide Producer Survey has been going on over the last two weeks and finished last Friday.  The survey compiled crop data from over 25 states and will be released in a webinar this Wednesday (September 2nd) at 10:00 AM CDT.  Don’t forget to register for the live webinar here!

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting corn crop conditions to decline 2% to 62% GTE (64% last week, 66% average).  Soybean crop conditions expected to decline 2% to 67% GTE (69% last week, 63% average).  Hard red spring wheat is expected to be unchanged at 70% GTE (70% GTE last week).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position short -61,489 corn contracts, long +109,288 soybean contracts, long +1,517 wheat contracts, long +62,102 live cattle contracts and long +27,202 lean hog contracts.

Private exporters reported export sales on Friday to the USDA of 324,032 metric tons of corn to Unknown during this marketing year.  In the last week, there were recorded corn sales of over 1,719,000 metric tons.

Taiwan paved the way for an eventual free trade deal with the U.S. last week by announcing an easing of restrictions on the import of U.S. beef and pork, as they look to boost ties with the U.S. at a time of tensions with China.  Taiwan-U.S. trade last year was worth $85.5 billion.  Taiwan was the 14th largest export market for the U.S. last year.

October live cattle futures fell by $3.45 last week while October feeder cattle futures lost $5.27. Trade has noted much of the packer’s cattle needs for September are covered.

Last week’s cattle run pushed to 654,000 head, just over the previous week’s 652,000 (+0.1% over last year).  The weight report noted steer carcasses at 3.2% over last year and heifers +3.0% over last year.

Hog processing last week came to 2.664 million head.  Positively, it was over the 2.626 post-virus peak made in June, over the previous week’s 2.618 million head and 7.9% over last year’s number for this week.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 2.14 and select up 0.60.  The Feeder cattle index is 141.56.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.39.

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