Election Uncertainty & COVID Fears Pressure Grain Prices

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 2, 2020.

Grain Markets slid lower overnight as Coronavirus cases escalated around the globe over the weekend as traders cautiously await the results of this week’s election.  Traders will also continue to watch weather patterns as South American continues to plant and the U.S. completes harvest.

Last week, December corn futures were down 20.75 cents, January soybeans were down 25.75 cents, December wheat down 34.25 cents, December soymeal was down $7.80 and December soyoil was down 50 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting corn harvest at 85% complete (72% last week, 69% average).  Soybean harvest expected at 92% complete (83% last week, 83% average).  Winter wheat conditions expected at 45% GTE (41% GTE last week).  Winter wheat planting expected at 90% (91% average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position long +276,235 corn contracts, long +232,717 soybean contracts, long +48,896 wheat contracts, long +14,811 live cattle contracts and long +40,582 lean hog contracts.

Private exporters reported export sales of 121,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Unknown during this marketing year on Friday.

USDA September soybean crush report will be released this morning.  Trade is looking for 171.3 million bushels (174.6 mb last report & 162.3 mb last year).  Soy oil stocks estimated at 1.826 billion lbs. (+86 million lbs. over USDA’s Oct forecasts for end of 19/20 US soy oil end stocks of 1.740 billion lbs.)

Cash cattle trade was steady with the previous week with trades around to $105.50 and $106.  Last year’s price in this same week was $113.

Hog slaughter last week totaled 2.683 million head (under Allendale’s 2.696 morning estimate).  This week’s run is 0.2% over last year and the previous four weeks have averaged 0.7% under last year.

Germany added 11 more wild boars to its African Swine Fever findings bringing the new total to 114.  On the contrary, Chinese export purchases of U.S. pork have been low to moderate in five of the past six weeks.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.78 and select up 0.01.  The Feeder cattle index is 136.76.  Pork cut-out values were down 3.77.

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