Funds Remain Bullish As USDA Report Approaches September 28, 2020
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 28, 2020.
Grain Markets were quiet overnight as traders patiently wait for Wednesday’s USDA grains report. Soybean futures found some support due to South America weather and port disruptions but gains were capped as the U.S. continues to show great harvest weather for the next week.
Last week, December corn futures were down 13.75 cents, November soybeans were down 42.25 cents, December wheat down 31.00 cents, December soymeal was down $3.30 and December soyoil was down 183 points.
Allendale released estimates for Wednesday’s USDA grain stocks and small grains summary reports. We see September 1 corn stocks at 2,243 million bushels, soybeans 546 mb, and wheat stocks at 2,206 mb. All wheat production is estimated at 1,835 million bushels. Don’t forget to checkout our latest SnapShot for more on how to prepare for these reports.
USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT. Trade is expecting corn harvest at 18-20% complete (8% last week, 15% average). Soybean harvest expected at 17% complete (6% last week, 15% average. Hard red winter wheat planting is expected to be at 35% complete (20% complete last week).
CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position long +95,912 corn contracts, long +211,143 soybean contracts, long +14,543 wheat contracts, long +57,999 live cattle contracts and long +43,580 lean hog contracts.
Private exporters reported export sales on Friday to the USDA of 100,000 metric tons of soymeal to Unknown during this marketing year.
Argentine grains port workers union said it would stage a 24-hour walk-off after failing to strike a deal on a collective work agreement with the business chamber that represents private port owners. The walk-off is scheduled to begin from midnight Sunday and run for all of Monday.
USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed report covering feedlot activity during August, was released last week. August placements came in higher than expected at 9.2% over last year (+5.8% expected, +11% last month) at 2.057 million head. September 1 On Feed was +3.8% over last year (+3.3% expected, +1.5% last month) at 11.394 million head while August marketings were at 3.1% under last year (-3.3% expected, -0.6% last month) at 1.892 million head, due to the days on the calendar difference this year vs. last year.
Weekly meat processing was stable last week with beef production estimated at 546.6 million lbs. (2.1% over last year) due to higher weights. Pork production for the week was estimated at 2.627 million head (0.5% under last year).
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.86 and select down 0.76. The Feeder cattle index is 142.23. Pork cut-out values were down 0.71.
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