Global Efforts Being Made to Contain Coronavirus

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for March 3, 2020.

Grain markets are higher as global efforts increase to minimize the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.  Global markets and oil prices extended their rebound on growing speculation policymakers around the world will move to ease the economic fallout from the fast spreading outbreak.

USDA’s NASS released their weekly crop report and rated the Kansas winter wheat crop at 43% GTE (35% last week).  Texas (the No. 2 winter wheat state by planted area), was rated 36% GTE (31% last week.  Texas corn crop was 12% planted (6% five-year average).

China could face a desert locust invasion, a government body warned, urging local authorities to prepare for the possible arrival of the large insects.  The desert locusts have already ravaged crops and pastures in several countries in east Africa and swarms have spread into India and Pakistan.

The coronavirus appears to be spreading much more quickly outside China than within, as airports in heavily infected countries are ramping up screening of travelers.  World Health Organization (WHO) chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said almost eight times as many cases had been reported outside China as inside in the previous 24 hours, adding the risk of coronavirus spreading was now very high at a global level.

USDA weekly grain export inspections showed corn exports at 896,000 tonnes (800,000 to 1,100,000 expected), soybean exports at 671,000 tonnes (500,000 to 800,000 expected) and wheat exports at 654,000 tonnes (350,000 to 600,000 expected).

NOPA Soybean crush report (for January) showed crush at 188.8 million bushels (187.3 million bu. estimated, 184.7 million bu. last month).  This crush number is a new all-time record (previously was October 19 at 187.0 mil. bu.). Oil stocks at 2.352 billion lbs. (2.365 billion lbs. estimated, 2.013 billion lbs. last month, 1.757 bil. lbs. end of December).

ABARES lifted this year’s Australian wheat production to 21.3 million tonnes (15.17 million tonnes last year – a 12 year low).  ABARES also expects farmers to sow 12 million hectares (29.7 million acres) of wheat this season (10.1 million hectares planted last year).

Ukraine’s wheat harvest is likely to fall to 25.8 million tonnes this year (28.2 million tonnes last estimate), the Ukrainian grain traders union, UGA said.  ProAgro said last month that Ukraine’s 2020 grain harvest was likely to fall to 72.673 million tonnes due to a smaller winter wheat sowing area and unfavorable weather.

Live cattle cash trade averaged $115 last week. This was 10% under last year in the same week.  April live cattle futures are implying a $112 value in the second week of April (13% under last year).

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.23 and select up 2.25.  The Feeder cattle index was at 133.52.  Pork cut-out values were up 2.43.

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