Grain Markets Extend Rally on Warmer & Dry Weather September 14, 2020
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 14, 2020.
Grain Markets were higher overnight as weather in the Midwest for this coming week looks to be dry with some added heat in the forecast. Trade will focus on yield reports this week as they come trickling in from the start of harvest season.
Last week, December corn futures were up 11.50 cents, November soybeans were up 29.50 cents, December wheat up 3.75 cents, December soymeal was down $1.40 and December soyoil was up 59 points.
USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT. Trade is expecting corn crop conditions to decline 1% at 60% GTE (61% last week, 63% average). Soybean crop conditions expected to decline 1% to 64% GTE (65% last week, 63% average). Hard red spring wheat harvesting is expected to be 4-5% higher at 86% complete (82% complete last week).
USDA September Supply and Demand report showed U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.503 billion bushels (estimated at 2.433 bb, 2.756 bb last report, 2.253 bb last year), U.S. soybean ending stocks at 460 million bushels (estimated 455 mb, 610 mb last report, 575 mb last year), and U.S. wheat ending stocks at 925 million bushels (estimated 924 mb, 925 mb last report, 1.04 bb last year).
USDA World Crop Ending Stocks showed world corn ending stocks at 306.80 million tonnes (estimated 310.60 mt, 317.50 mt last report, 309.2 mt last year), world soybean ending stocks at 93.50 million tonnes (estimated 93.50 mt, 95.40 mt last report, 96.0 mt last year), and world wheat ending stocks at 319.40 million tonnes (estimated 316.00 mt, 316.80 mt last report, 299.80 mt last year).
Weekly export sales showed corn sales at 1,823,200 tonnes (estimated 1,000,000 to 1,900,000 tonnes), soybean exports at 3,161,800 tonnes (estimated 1,100,000 to 1,900,000), and wheat exports at 484,400 (estimated 250,000 to 600,000).
CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position long +33,494 corn contracts, long +173,907 soybean contracts, long +23,175 wheat contracts, long +58,622 live cattle contracts and long +33,616 lean hog contracts.
Private exporters reported export sales on Friday to the USDA of 222,000 metric tons of soybeans to Unknown during this marketing year. There was an additional 262,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during this marketing year as well.
Cash cattle sales last week were mostly at $102 with a few $101’s. The average price last week was $1 lower from the previous week.
USDA’s monthly supply/demand report last week added a small piece of positive news for hog futures by lowering their 2021 pork production estimate by 120 million lbs. (from 28.565 billion to 28.445 billion). In this number, they see Q1 at 4.8% under last year.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.94 and select down 0.22. The Feeder cattle index is 140.99. Pork cut-out values were up 0.39.
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