Grain Prices Remain Stable With Declining Open Interest

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 30, 2020.

Grain Markets were slightly higher overnight as the South American crop continues to struggle due to dryness, but gains have remained capped as export sales have slowed down over the last few weeks and U.S./South American weather look favorable in the extended forecasts.  Trade will continue to watch export sales and/or cancellations, global supply changes and shipment price fluctuations between U.S. and Brazil.

Last week, March corn futures were up 5.25 cents, January soybeans were up 12.25 cents, December wheat up 7.00 cents, December soymeal was up $4.20 and December soyoil was up 20 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting winter wheat conditions at 44% GTE (43% GTE last week, 54% GTE five-year average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report from last week has been delayed and will be released today due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Trade has seen managed funds make limited moves over the last few weeks.

Private exporters reported export sales on Friday of 302,160 metric tons of corn to Mexico for delivery this marketing year. 

USDA Weekly Export Sales were released on Friday and showed corn exports at 1,665,600 million tons (expected 800,000 – 1,400,000 mt), soybeans at 768,000 mt (expected 700,000 – 1,400,000 mt), wheat exports at 795,700 mt (expected 200,000 – 450,000 mt), soymeal at 138,200 mt (expected 100,000 – 300,000) and soyoil at 26,300 mt (expected 0 – 50,000 mt).

Safras last week pegged Brazil’s first corn crop production at 19 million metric tons (22.8 mmt last forecast, 26.8 mmt last year).  Total 2021 corn crop pegged at 112.9 million metric tons (110 mmt USDA, 104.5 mmt last year).  Safras also pegged the soybean crop at 133.5 million metric tons (133 mmt USDA forecast).

Abares tomorrow will update Australian wheat crop (estimated at 32 million metric tons (28.5 mmt USDA forecast). China continues to avoid Australian wheat (asking for offers on U.S. hard red winter and white wheat).

Cash cattle finished the week trading around $111.00 live and $174 dressed.  February live cattle futures finished the week up $2.32 and January feeders $5.02 higher.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 2.21 and select down 0.22.  The Feeder cattle index is 136.90.  Pork cut-out values were up 1.61.

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