Grain Traders Brace for WASDE Report

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 9, 2020.

Grain Markets were mixed overnight with corn futures sliding back on favorable harvest weather and large global supplies while soybean and wheat futures pushed higher on stronger than expected demand and dry weather in South America and Southern U.S. Plains.

Last week, December corn futures were up 7.50 cents, January soybeans were up 47.25 cents, December wheat up 3.25 cents, December soymeal was up $5.00 and December soyoil was up 188 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting corn harvest at 91% complete (82% last week, 79% average).  Soybean harvest expected at 95% complete (87% last week, 84% average).  Winter wheat conditions expected at 46-47% GTE (43% GTE last week).  Winter wheat planting expected at 90% (85% complete last week, 91% average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position long +290,080 corn contracts, long +210,957 soybean contracts, long +48,605 wheat contracts, long +16,068 live cattle contracts and long +35,714 lean hog contracts.

Average estimates for tomorrow’s USDA November Supply and Demand report were compiled by Bloomberg. They see corn yields of 177.7 bpa, and soybean yields at 51.6 bpa. Total corn production is estimated at 14,659 million bushels and soybeans 4,251 million bushels.

Ending stocks for 2020/2021 are estimated at 2,033 million bushels for corn, 235 million for soybeans, and 881 million bushels of wheat. In the poll, world ending stocks estimates show corn ending stocks at 296.37 million bushels, soybean ending stocks at 87.44 million bushels and wheat ending stocks at 319.78 million bushels.

USDA 10-year Baseline report was released on Friday showing 2021 US corn acreage area at 90 million acres (1 million acres lower than last year) soybean acreage at 89 million acres (up 5.9 million acres from last year) and wheat acreage at 46 million acres (1.7 million acres above last year).

Private exporters reported export sales of 206,900 metric tons of corn for delivery to Unknown during this marketing year on Friday.  Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during this marketing year and export sales of 272,150 metric tons of soybeans to Unknown during this marketing year.

Safras last week pegged Brazil’s soybean planting at 54.2% complete (35% last week, 52% average).  Mato Grosso soybean planting at 82% complete (86.4% average, 91.6% last year).

Cash cattle traded at $106 earlier in the week and $107 from Texas through Nebraska at the end of the week.  Dressed action was noted at $167 last week.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.77 and select down 0.48.  The Feeder cattle index is 136.63.  Pork cut-out values were down 2.32.

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