Hopeful U.S. Exports Push Grain Markets Higher

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 23, 2020.

Grain Markets continued marching higher with soybean futures leading the way overnight as they reached $12 and slid back.  Traders are still anticipating strong export sales as global supply continues to struggle.  Trade will continue to watch South America’s planting weather and U.S. export sales in what typically is a quite trading week.

Last week, March corn futures were up 8.50 cents, January soybeans were up 33.00 cents, December wheat down 3.50 cents, December soymeal was up $4.70 and December soyoil was up 138 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is expecting corn harvest at 98% complete (95% last week, 89% average).  Soybean harvest expected at 98% complete (96% last week, 95% average).  Winter wheat conditions expected at 47% GTE (46% GTE last week, 54% GTE last year).

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds with a new net position in corn futures long +278,889, soybeans long +208,774, wheat long +14,414, live cattle long +37, 934 and lean hogs long +35,710.

Private exporters reported export sales on Friday of 158,270 metric tons of corn to Mexico for delivery this marketing year and 131,000 metric tons of corn to Unknown for delivery this marketing year.

Safras last week pegged Brazil’s soybean planting at 74.1% complete (75.5% average).  BAGE estimated Argentine corn planting at 31% complete (45% last year).

USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed Report was released on Friday at 2 p.m. CDT and showed On-Feed (as of Nov. 1st) at 1.3% over last year (expected 1.8% over last year, 3.8% over last month) at 11.973 million head.  Placement in October was at 11.0% under last year (expected 8.9% under last year, 5.9% over last month) at 2.192 million head and October Marketings at 0.1% under last year (expected 0.2% over last year, 6.2% over last month) at 1.873 million head.

Cash cattle finished the week trading steady to $1.00 under the previous week.  February live cattle futures finished the week down $1.92 and January feeders $3.22 lower.

Lean hog futures held as steady as they could have this week only down $0.80.  With a strong rebound Friday, reversing Thursday’s sharp losses.  Fears of labor problems at the packing plants, an increase in weekly jobless benefit claims and low Chinese interest on the morning export sales report pushed hog futures to the lowest trade during this downtrend.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.65 and select up 1.09.  The Feeder cattle index is 136.75.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.05.

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