Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for March 13, 2020.
Grain Markets are higher this morning as they look to find their footing in a coronavirus world. With the virus spread unknown, current world demand unknown, and a time-frame for certainty unknown, traders are evening positions ahead of the weekend.
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Weekly export sales reported corn sales of 1,599,265 metric tonnes, 1,471,165 of that for 2019/20. This was over the 600,00 – 1,300,000 trade expectation. This week’s sale was the second best for this specific week of all time. Soybean export sales totaled 304,221 metric tonnes, 302,835 of that for 2019/20. This was under the 400,00 – 825,000 trade expectation. This was the lowest sale for this week in five years. Wheat export sales totaled 480,757 metric tonnes, 452,257 of that for 2019/20. This was over the 225,00 – 675,000 trade expectation. It was also the best sale for this specific week in six years.
Argentine soybean production will reach 51.5 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, below the previous estimate of 55 million tonnes, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) forecast on Wednesday. (Reuters)
Strategie Grains raised its estimate for EU soft wheat exports in its monthly supply and demand report. They now estimate soft wheat exports outside the EU at 31.2 million tonnes, up 600,000 tonnes from their previous estimate on strong German numbers.
Algeria, one of the worlds biggest grain buyers, bought around 680,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender which closed yesterday, but they do not detail their purchases, so information is limited on the sale.
CME Group announced it will close the Chicago trading floor after trade today to reduce the risk of the spread of the coronavirus. In most markets, electronic trade already dominates, so this will have little impact on trade. However, it is another indication of the severity of this virus.
Limit down futures trading was noted from the April through February live cattle contracts. All offered feeder cattle futures contracts closed limit down. Cash cattle traded today at $108, down from yesterday’s $110. We are now $5 off last week’s trade.
Actual Slaughter showed Steer carcasses fell by 3 lbs. to 897 from 2/22 to 2/29. Heifer carcasses grew by 2 lbs. in this week to 833. Year over year numbers steer weights fell from +3.0% year/year to +2.6%. Heifer weights grew from +1.6% to +2.5%. Dressed barrow/gilt weights were unchanged from the prior week at 213 lbs. Year/year grew from unchanged to now +0.5%.
Weekly beef export sales this morning showed sales totaled 17,668 metric tonnes. That was 38% over last year in the same week. Pork export sales saw a net cancellation of 26,603 metric tonnes. It lowers year to date sales to 740,055 tonnes. That is 69% over last year at this time.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .08 and select down 2.22. The Feeder cattle index was at 133.05. Pork cut-out values were up 0.86.