Markets Look Ahead to Next Report Estimates

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 2, 2020.

Grain Markets are quiet as we draw near the end of a wild report filled week. After the weekend, traders will quickly turn to U.S. harvest progress and next Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand report.

StoneX, formerly FC Stone, estimates U.S. corn yield at 179.0 bushels per acre, a decrease from their previous estimate of 179.6 bpa. Soybean yields are estimated at 52.4 bpa, also a drop from last month’s 52.9 bpa. Last month, USDA was at 178.5 bpa and 51.9 respectively.

Argentina will temporarily cut its export tax on soybeans and soy products to 30%, down from 33% in an attempt to increase export revenue.

USDA August soybean crush was reported at 174.7 million bushels, just below the average estimate of 175.7 mb. Corn for ethanol in August was reported at 411 million bushels.

Weekly export sales reported corn sales of 2,027,125 metric tonnes, all for the 2020/21 marketing year. This was over the 800,000 – 1,400,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales of 2,591,201 metric tonnes, all for the 2020/21 marketing year. This was over the 1,500,000 – 2,500,000 trade expectation. Wheat sales of 506,284 metric tonnes, all for 2020/21 were just over the 200,000 – 500,000 trade expectation.

Wheat margins will see an increase effective with today’s close. Front month Chicago wheat will increase to $1,275 per contract, up from $1,150. KC wheat margins will increase to $1,250, up from $1,050 for the front month contract.

World Weather, Inc. notes, “Russia’s Southern Region is still in the midst of a notable drought along with western Kazakhstan and some neighboring areas in eastern Ukraine. The pattern is somewhat similar to that of a year ago and rain finally arrived in late October and November. However, this year’s significant moisture may be a little later coming because of a prevailing weather pattern..”

Cash cattle saw confirmed trades at $107 and $167 in Nebraska and $108 in Eastern Iowa. The trade is still waiting for the South to move at higher prices.

Weekly beef sales were reported at 24,681 tonnes. This number was 98% over last year. Pork sales, were reported at 39,544 tonnes. This was 28% over last year. Sales have been strong since the start of July.

Another two wild boar ASF confirmations were announced today in Germany. This brings the total to 40 so far. These two were found in the area of the original findings from 37 of the others.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.24 and select up .08.  The Feeder cattle index is 142.38.  Pork cut-out values were up 4.28.

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