Markets Look to Demand

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 29, 2020.

Grain Markets are mixed as traders look to demand indicators for the next move. Overnight export sales as well as this morning’s ethanol report will both be watched closely.

We’ll be live with Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. this afternoon at 2:00 PM CDT. There’s still time to get registered online. Hear Drew’s latest forecast for the major growing areas throughout the world and have an opportunity to ask questions. Don’t miss out!

Brazil’s soybean production is expected at 129.15 million tonnes according to ag consulting firm Arc Mercosul. If realized, it would be a new record. They also see acreage higher at 94.9 million. Both numbers are 3 to 4% above last year.

Rabobank was also out with Brazilian soybean estimates. They see the country producing 127.3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2020/21. They also see acreage higher. 

Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of EU soft wheat to just under 130 million tonnes as crops in France, Romania, and Bulgaria looked to be damaged by poor weather. Last year the EU produced 147 million tonnes.

Egypt bought 470,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender that closed today. The majority of the sales went to Russia, but Ukraine picked some up as well.

Grains operations of Chinese food giant COFCO and U.S. agribusiness firm Bunge Argentina have been hit by the detection of cases of COVID-19 among workers, underscoring a challenge for the South American country as infection numbers rise. (Reuters)

The monthly Consumer Confidence report showed a decline in sentiment from an index reading of 98.3 down to 92.6. This was just under the 94.5 trade estimate. This number is still up from an April low of 85.70. The peak for over 15 years is 137.90 from October 2018.

Cattle Showlists, the number of finished cattle ready for packers to buy this week, was estimated at 7,200 over the previous week.

If weekly hog processing rates stay at 2.6 million head each week ahead the market hog backlog will fall from 2.4 million right now to 2.0 in four weeks. After that, with the seasonal supply increase it balloon to 3.6 if the processing situation does not pick up.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 0.41 and select down 1.81. The Feeder cattle index is 139.77.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.89.

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