Markets Look to Familiar Stories

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 19, 2020.

Grain Markets look to the end of the week with many of the same stories at the forefront. Weather forecasts, Chinese buying, and coronavirus updates all have the ability to shift mentalities and pricing.

Weekly export sales were reported at 473,000 tonnes of corn, 1,918,000 tonnes soybeans, and 505,000 tonnes of wheat. The corn number was well below expectations, the soybean number was within expectations, while the wheat number was slightly above.

Of the weekly numbers above, China bought 3,148 tonnes of corn. Their purchases from 2/13 – 6/11 total 2,027,240 metric tonnes (1,208,240 old + 819,000 new). Known Chinese soybean buys total 1,354,000 tonnes, 321,000 for old and 1,033,000 for new. 2/13 – 6/11 China has bought 6,500,697 tonnes, 3,452,697 for old and 3,048,000 for new. On top of that, Unknown (likely China) bought 2,525,000 tonnes old crop and 1,730,000 tonnes of new.

Agroconsult estimates Brazil’s total 2019/20 corn crop at 100.1 million tonnes,  a drop from 2018/19’s 102.5 million tonnes due to local areas or drought.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentine wheat plantings this season at 16.5 million acres, a drop from their previous estimate of 16.8 million based dryness in some wheat regions.

The updated forecast from NOAA shows the 3 month period of July through September to be above normal temperatures with IA, IL, MO, IN and Eastern Nebraska having above normal precipitation. The northern and far western portion of the cornbelt have equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

China has suspended pork imports from a German plant after the company reported a new coronavirus outbreak among its workers. China continues to increase inspections of imported meat after a new outbreak of coronavirus in Beijing was traced back to a big wholesale food market in the city.

Beef export sales were positive again at 20,097 tonnes in the previous week. Year to date sales come to 504,372 tonnes, 5.7% under last year. Weekly pork export sales ran 38,559 tonnes. It was 96% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales of 1,190,417 tonnes are noted, 37% over last year.

USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released today at 2:00 PM CDT. May placements are expected 0.2% under last year at 2.060 million head. It would be the lowest May placement in four years. Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in May of 24.3% under last year at 1.567 million. Total Cattle on Feed as of June 1 is expected 1.0% under last year at 11.617 million. This would be the lowest June 1 total in two years.

Monthly USDA Cold Storage report will be out Monday, June 22nd at 2 p.m. CDT.  Allendale projects a 580 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of May (622 million lbs. five-year average). Our estimate represents a decrease of 35 million lbs. from the previous month.  Beef stocks are estimated at 457 million lbs. (five-year average of 444 million lbs.). This would be a decrease of 33 million lbs. from the previous month (five-year average for this month is a 19 million lb. decrease).

Dressed beef values were lower again with choice down 4.37 and select down 4.00. The Feeder cattle index is 128.51. Pork cut-out values were down .46.

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