Markets Turn to Supply and Demand

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 9, 2020.

Grain Markets are higher overnight as traders look to this morning’s USDA report for the latest in Supply and Demand. Once the market digests that data, focus will turn back to harvest progress and weather concerns.

USDA will release their latest Supply and Demand data at 11:00 AM CDT. Traders estimate they will report corn ending stocks at 2.113 billion bushels, soybeans.369 billion, and wheat at .887 billion bushels.

Corn yields are expected to average 177.7 bushels per acre, while soybeans are estimated at 51.6 bpa. Total production is seen at 14.808 billion bushels of corn and 4.282 billion for soybeans.

World ending stocks are estimated at 300.10 million tonnes of corn, 91.36 million soybeans, and 317.23 million tonnes of wheat.

CONAB estimates Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean crop at 133.673 million tonnes, compared to 2019/20’s 124.845. They see this year’s corn crop at 105.167 million tonnes vs. last year’s 102.503 million.

Weekly export sales were reported at 1,225,700 tonnes of corn, within the 700,000-1,500,000 tonne estimate, soybeans 2,590,700, a bit above the 1,500,000-2,500,000 estimate, and wheat 530,600 tonnes, within the 250,000-600,000 estimate.

Argentina has approved HB4 drought-resistant GMO wheat by biotechnology firm Bioceres SA BIOX.BA, the company and the government said on Wednesday, making it the first country in the world to approve a strain of GMO wheat. (Reuters)

Hurricane Delta continues to make its way across the Gulf of Mexico, shutting offshore oil rigs. It is expected to make landfall in Louisiana later this evening.

Cash cattle traded up to $108 in Kansas yesterday. That fills the hopes for cattle feeders this week, $1 over last week’s $107. Yesterday’s trade also backs up yesterday’s Fed Cattle Exchange action with two of their three lots seeing $108.50.

Beef export sales were reported at 20,691 tonnes in sales of beef for the week that ended 10/1. That was much over last year in the same week when we had an aberration with a 29,079 tonne net cancellation. Pork export sales were strong at 60,195 tonnes. The sale to all locations was the best of the year so far. It was 98% over last year.

Chinese pork buyers finally showed up in the US market, three weeks after Germany’s first ASF finding. Futures, this time led by December, responded with higher trade.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.88 and select down 2.48.  The Feeder cattle index is 142.60.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.18.

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