Month End to Change the Trend?

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for April 30, 2020.

Grain Markets are mixed as traders watch weather forecasts across the globe while the U.S. continues to plant its crop. As the month comes to a close, we would expect to see some position evening as traders prepare for what comes next.

Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Traders expect to see corn sales of 900,000 to 1,650,000 tonnes, soybeans 800,000 to 1,600,000, wheat 200,000 to 650,000, soymeal 100,000 to 275,000, and soyoil 8,000 to 35,000.

March crush is estimated at 191.5 million bushels according to a survey conducted by Reuters. If realized, this would be a new record, beating January’s 188.8 million. USDA will releases the crush report tomorrow at 2:00 PM CDT.

Crops in Australia are improving as noted by World Weather, Inc. “Periodic rain since the beginning of the year has helped ease drought in much of New South Wales, though moisture shortages are still prevalent in many areas. The region will receive additional rain in coming weeks that will further increase confidence for aggressive planting and establishment.”

Weekly ethanol production fell to its lowest level yet in modern times. Last week slipped down to 537,000 barrels per day for production, down from 563,000 the prior week. This new number is 48% under last year. On a positive note, gasoline demand is slowly increasing.

The economic calendar is busy this morning with Initial and Continuing Jobless claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices, and Employment Cost Index all due at 7:30 AM CDT. Chicago PMI will be out at 8:45.

The US hog slaughter problem continues to get worse. Tuesday’s USDA hog slaughter estimate was revised down from 283,000 to 278,000. Yesterday’s estimate was 271,000. This is the lowest yet. A normal weekday run for this time of year would be 490,000 head.

Tuesday’s USDA cattle slaughter estimate was revised down from 76,000 to 72,000. Yesterday’s estimate was 72,000. As in hogs we are still at the lowest levels yet.

Three cash cattle trades on the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange were seen at $100 and three in the 94.50 – 95.50 range. Last week’s USDA average weekly prices were $96/$97 for the All Grades group and $101 for 35%-65% choice.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 26.56 and select up 19.03. The Feeder cattle index is 118.83. Pork cut-out values were up 2.24.

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