Trade Braces for Tuesday’s Data Tidal Wave

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 11, 2021.

Grain Markets remained near their highs overnight as trade prepares for a surge of USDA information on this month’s WASDE report.  Trade will continue to watch open interest, South American weather and crop updates and 2021 U.S. acreage updates.

Last week, March corn futures were up 12.50 cents, March soybeans were up 63.75 cents, March wheat down 2.50 cents, March soymeal was up $10.20 and March soyoil was up 103 points.

CFTC Commitments of Traders showed funds new net positions of long +349,888 corn contracts, long +175,827 soybean contracts, long +25,210 wheat contracts, long +45,988 live cattle contracts and long +37,077 lean hog contracts.

Average estimates for tomorrow’s important USDA reports have U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.599 billion bushels, soybeans 0.139 bb, and wheat 0.859 bb. All three would represent a decrease from last month’s data.

Quarterly Grain Stocks is expected to show corn stocks of 11.951 billion bushels as of December 1, soybeans 2.920 bb, and wheat 1.695 bb.

All Winter wheat is expected to be reported at 31.528 million acres, consisting of 22.140 Hard Red, 5.884 Soft Red, and 3.514 million acres of white wheat. All three of the above mentioned reports will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CST.

Safras stated 57.7% of Brazil’s 2021 soybean crop is sold by farmers (38.6% average, 43.1% last year).  Conab will release latest Brazil corn and soybean production forecasts early tomorrow morning as well.

February lean hog futures finished the week down $1.45 while June lean hog futures finished the week up $0.80.  Wholesale pork has been supportive with gains of $2.42 (11% over last year).

February live cattle futures settled last week 0.55 lower while the deferred months finished slightly higher.  Cash cattle trade remained at $112.

Dressed beef values finished higher with choice up 0.99 and select up 0.10.  The Feeder cattle index is 135.63.  Pork cut-out values were up 1.18.

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