Trade moderates after corn posts new lows. August 5, 2020
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 5, 2020.
Grain Markets were slightly higher with corn and soybean futures showing minimal gains after yesterday’s sharp declines. September and December corn pushed to new lows for the long term downtrend.
If you missed our Grain and Livestock outlooks last week, recordings are still available for you to watch. Call us at 800-262-7538 to get access.
Overnight export sales have been light in recent days. The last qualified overnight purchase of corn was on Friday. Soybean sales were reported last week on Monday and Thursday. They were also seen Monday of this week.
Argentina’s exchange rate will be a major conversation in the coming weeks. The country has released details of a deal with creditors to restructure $65 billion in sovereign debt. This may hopefully stop nine instances of defaults. Much of the US grain trade has correctly noted our focus should be on the US $ vs. Brazil and the US $ vs. Argentina.
Ethanol production statistics will be out at 9:30 am Central today. This will be compared against last year’s 1.040 million gallons per day pace. Last week’s report suggested only a 7.1% year/year decline in production.
August deliveries are still not a market moving issue. Yesterday afternoon’s report found zero tenders for August soybeans, 219 contracts for soymeal and 219 for soymeal.
Higher yields are the discussion this week. One research firm suggest 182.4 bpa for corn and 54.2 for soybeans (USDA trend 178.5/49.8). Allendale agrees that US will be revising estimates higher next Wednesday. Our estimates will be released this morning by 10 am.
Allendale’s yield research shows a high correlation between August 2 crop ratings and the August WASDE yield number. This research would suggest 184.4 and 51.7 for corn and soybeans respectively. Our estimates will be released this morning by 10 am.
Vegetable oils have been the supportive factor for US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil stocks are seen at 1.67 million tonnes for the end of July. That would be 11.9% under last year.
Lebanese grain supplies were a big topic of conversation after numerous videos showed an explosion near the port in Beirut. Of note, the country uses a minimal 1.35 million tonnes of wheat annually and imports 1.2.
End users continue to show interest for beef. Last week procurement for +22 days was +23% year/year. They were mainly focused on the 61 – 90 day procurement at +73% year/year. That’s pretty much the month of October.
Wholesale pork lost 5.22 last week to 65.31. That was the lowest pricing since July 7.
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