Traders Look to Next Week’s Reports

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 25, 2020.

Grain markets were mixed overnight as traders begin to look forward to next week’s USDA reports. With no overnight export sales reported yesterday, the 8:00 AM CDT timeslot will be watched with interest to see if Chinese purchases will resume.

Allendale released estimates for next weeks grain stocks and small grains summary reports. We see September 1 corn stocks at 2,243 million bushels, soybeans 546 mb, and wheat stocks at 2,206 mb. All wheat production is estimated at 1,835 million bushels. Don’t forget to checkout our latest SnapShot for more on how to prepare for these reports.

Weekly export sales had corn sales of 2,139,002 metric tonnes, all for the 2020/21 marketing year, and within the 1,050,000 – 1,800,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales of 3,194,675 metric tonnes, also all for 2020/21  were within the 2,000,000 – 3,000,000 trade expectation. Wheat sales were reported at 351,244 metric tonnes, all 2020/21, and within the 250,000 – 600,000 trade expectation.

The International Grains Council lowered its 2020/21 world corn production estimate to 1.16 billion tonnes, a drop of 6 million tonnes. World wheat production was left unchanged at 763 million tonnes.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts that wheat areas hit hard by drought in Argentina may get some help this weekend if rains fall as predicted. They also updated their estimate of the country’s soy crop to 46.5 million tonnes and the corn crop to 47 million tonnes, both under last years production.

World Weather, Inc. notes, “Western portions of Ukraine will receive timely rain through the end of next week that will significantly increase soil moisture needed for winter crops.”

President Trump is taking steps to help producers of corn-based ethanol using a list of policy goals that a group of Midwest senators discussed with him a year ago, according to two sources familiar with the matter. (Reuters)

House Democrats are preparing a new, smaller coronavirus relief package expected to cost about $2.4 trillion as they try to forge ahead with talks with the Trump administration, a source familiar with the plans said. (CNBC)

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs found the nation’s hog herd was seen 0.7% over last year vs. the Reuters poll at +0.1%. Kept for Marketings, hogs alive as of September 1 that will be marketed from September 1 – February, was counted at 0.8% over last year.

Germany announced three more ASF cases. That puts the total now to 32 wild boar.

Weekly export sales reported 37,768 tonnes in sales of pork for the week that ended 9/17. This was 17% over last year.  China was responsible for 6,161 tonnes of the sales. USDA reported 18,010 tonnes in sales of beef, 5% under last year.  3,396 tonnes of today’s sale was to China.

Cattle on Feed, covering feedlot activity during August, will be out this afternoon. The average trade estimate among the Bloomberg newswire poll was for August placements 5.5% over last year. This returns three months in a row of higher than last year placements. Q1 and Q2 ahead will be adequately supplied. September 1 On Feed is seen at +3.3% year/year while August marketings are noted at 3.4% under last year due to the days on the calendar difference this year vs. last.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.61 and select up 0.14.  The Feeder cattle index is 142.59.  Pork cut-out values were up 3.06.

Post Archives

Allendale Insider

On The Go

Market Movers


Trader Insights

Morning Wake up Calls