Traders Look to WASDE Report Estimates

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 7, 2020.

Grain Markets were mixed overnight as trade begins to turn their attention to next week’s USDA Supply and Demand report after estimates began to be announced.

Average estimates for next week’s USDA Supply and Demand report were compiled by Bloomberg. They see corn yields of 180.5 bpa, and soybean yields at 51.2 bpa. Total corn production is estimated at 15,177 million bushels, soybeans 4,260 million bushels, and all wheat at 1,833 million bushels.

Ending stocks for 2020/2021 are estimated at 2,824 million bushels for corn, 526 million for soybeans, and 948 million bushels of wheat. In the poll, world ending stocks were not expected to change much.

Weekly export sales were reported yesterday at 2,702,000 tonnes of corn, 1,755,000 tonnes of soybeans, and 611,000 tonnes of wheat. The corn and wheat numbers were within the range of estimates, while soybeans were a bit above.

Through Tuesday, week over week, managed money funds were estimated sellers of 40,500 corn contracts, 3,500 soybeans, and 13,500 wheat contracts. CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report will be released today at 2:30 PM CDT and will show the actual numbers.

Brazil is expected to export 80 million tonnes of soy next year, out of a total harvest of 130.5 million tonnes, according to an initial forecast from local soybean traders association Abiove on Thursday. (Reuters)

ProAgro increased its 2020 wheat harvest outlook for Ukraine to 26.59 million tonnes from 26.07 million. The increase is inline with USDA’s most recent estimate.

The monthly employment report from the Department of Labor is expected to show non-farm payrolls grow by 1.580 million. That would be a step down from +4.800 million and +2.699 million in June and May respectively. The unemployment rate is expected at 10.5%, down from 11.1% in May.

Weekly pork export sales this morning ran 30,348 metric tonnes. This was 121% over last year in the same week. This continues a six week trend of strong sales, +52% to +348% year/year. Beef sales were reported at 13,366 metric tonnes for the week ending 7/30, they were 39% under the previous year. That stopped three weeks of good sales that ran +40% to +163% year/year.

USDA released the monthly export/import data for June today. They noted pork exports at 515.303 million lbs., 3% over last year. The two prior months ran +21% and +22% year/year.

June US beef exports were low at 183.293 million lbs. This was 33% under last year. As a reminder, May was down 31% and April was down 9%. June beef imports totaled 308.653 million lbs., 15% over last year.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.09 and select up 1.19. The Feeder cattle index is 140.79. Pork cut-out values were up 3.76.

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