Traders Mull USDA Estimates

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 08, 2021.

Grain Markets are beginning to turn their focus to next week’s USDA reports, while keeping a close eye on near-term South American weather and longer term U.S. maps. 

Will a U.S. drought emerge in 2021? Some suggest the signs are leaning that way. Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. will give us his take January 27th in our annual Ag Leaders winter outlook series. Get registered here.

Average estimates for next Tuesday’s important USDA reports have U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.599 billion bushels, soybeans 0.139 bb, and wheat 0.859 bb. All three would represent a decrease from last month’s data.

Quarterly Grain Stocks is expected to show corn stocks of 11.951 billion bushels as of December 1, soybeans 2.920 bb, and wheat 1.695 bb.

All Winter wheat is expected to be reported at 31.528 million acres, consisting of 22.140 Hard Red, 5.884 Soft Red, and 3.514 million acres of white wheat. All three of the above mentioned reports will be released next Tuesday at 11:00 AM CST.

Weekly export sales had corn sales of 748,910 metric tonnes reported, within the 500,000 – 1,000,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales  were reported at 116,764 tonnes (36,964 for 2020/21 and 79,800 for 2021/22), below the 200,000 – 700,000 expectation. Wheat export sales of 281,313 tonnes were noted, 275,313 for current crop. That was within the 200,000 – 600,000 trade expectation.

Argentina’s government said on Thursday it would review a decision to temporarily suspend corn exports after a meeting between the farming minister and the leaders of the country’s main agricultural associations. (Reuters)

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised their estimate of Argentina’s wheat harvest from 16.8 million tonnes to now 17.0. USDA’s most recent estimate was 18.0.

Through the most recent week of reportable trade (through January 5th), managed money funds were estimated to be buyers of 50,000 corn contracts, 55,000 soybean contracts, and 33,500 wheat contracts. The actual data will be released today at 2:30 in the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

Steer weights fell 8 lbs. in this specific week to 913 lbs. Heifers were down by 8 also in just this one week. That dropped weights from +1.9% year/year to +0.9% for steers. Heifers fell from +1.6% to +0.2%.

Weekly beef export sales ran -1,228 for the expired old crop, normal for the last week of the year, and only 9,003 tonnes for new. Pork export sales showed -8,593 for the expired 2020 and 23,268 for 2021.

Hog weights from two weeks ago fell 1 lb. to 215 lbs. This dropped weights from +1.9% to +0.9%.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.54 and select up 0.51.  The Feeder cattle index is 135.35.  Pork cut-out values were up 2.17. 

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