Traders Stay Focused on Weather

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 15, 2020.

Grain Markets were lower overnight as favorable weather over the weekend along higher global supplies pressured prices. Trader will be keeping a close eye on export sales and weather concerns.

Last week, July corn futures were down 1.00 cent, July soybeans were up 5.75 cents, July wheat down 14.50 cents, July soymeal was unchanged and July soyoil was up 60 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CST.  Trade is expecting corn planting to be 100% complete.  Corn crop conditions expected around 76-77% GTE (75% last week).  Soybean planting expected at 95% complete (86% last week, 72% last year, 89% average).  Soybean crop conditions expected at 73-74% GTE (72% last week).  Hard red Spring wheat planting expected to be 100% complete.  

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position short -297,312 corn contracts, long +20,376 soybean contracts, short -11,896 wheat contracts, long +19,884 live cattle contracts and long +7,871 lean hog contracts.

May NOPA Soybean crush report will be released at 11p.m. CDT this morning.  Trade is looking for soybean crush at 173.04 million bushels (171.75 mb last month, 154.8 mb last year).  Oil stocks expected to slide to 2.025 billion lbs. (2.068 billion lbs. last month, 1.581 billion lbs. last year).

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China/Unknown.  This brings last week’s total soybean export sales to China to about 840,000 metric tonnes.

Oil prices fell sharply overnight as worries of slower demand growth with coronavirus cases rising and the Federal Reserve projecting recovery from the pandemic would take years.

Last week’s cattle kill came to 658,000 head (636,000 head the previous week) and it was 1.7% under last year.  It’s likely plants will run “over capacity” by a little in the coming weeks.  The goal is to keep the kill line at full speed and reduce further processing down the line.

Last week’s hog kill improved to 2.457 million head (2.442 million head the previous week) and it was 0.7% over last year.  December hog futures are still priced above July futures, something traders have only seen once in the past 20 years.

Dressed beef values were lower again with choice down 4.92 and select down 0.61.  The Feeder cattle index is 129.58.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.53.

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