Traders Turn to NOPA Crush

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 15, 2020.

Grain Markets look to this morning’s NOPA Crush report hoping to confirm solid demand. At the same time, overnight 8:00 AM export sales will be monitored for more sales to China, while traders are also watching weather maps as rainfall will slow some planting progress.

NOPA crush is expected to show April soybean crushings of 170.483 million bushels according to a Reuters poll of analysts. That number would be the highest April ever, but below March’s all time record of 181.374. The crush report will be out today at 11:00 AM CDT.

Weekly export sales reported corn sales of 1,627,732 metric tonnes, 1,073,237 for old and 554,495 for new crop. Soybean export sales totaled 1,095,474 metric tonnes, 655,474 for old and 440,000 for new. Wheat sales were reported at 380,112 metric tonnes, 244,792 for old and 135,340 for new.

China was a buyer of 371,000 tonnes of corn, 648,920 tonnes of soybeans (274,920 old,  374,000 new), and 55,000 tonnes of old crop wheat in the numbers above.

COFCO, the Chinese government-owned ag trading house, said that China is likely to start buying U.S. ag products soon, noting, “soybean supply pressure in China is also expected to be huge from May to September.”

Informa estimates U.S. corn acres at 94.16 million (USDA is currently at 97 million) and soybeans at 85.89 million (USDA is at 83.5 million).

Soy harvesting in Argentina is 87.4% complete, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report on Thursday, having advanced 9.2 percentage points over the preceding seven days on its way to a total projected 2019/20 crop of 49.5 million tonnes. The corn crop is 40% harvested, it said, maintaining its projected harvest estimate of 50 million tonnes. (Reuters)

Active rains in the forecast are offering mixed influence on markets today. While it is slowing planting in some eastern areas, it is also bringing needed rains to some areas like Iowa.

US Actual Slaughter report showed hog weights two weeks ago +0.5%. Steer dressed weights grew by 2 lbs. and heifers up by 8 lbs. from 4/25 to 5/2. Steers are now +4.8% and heifers +3.9% year/year.

Weekly pork export sales fell from 47,541 tonnes 4/30 to only 10,827 as of 5/7. Contrary to appearances, that’s not bad as this week is normally low. It was 3% over last year

US beef exports have fallen sharply for four weeks now. Week of 4/9 export sales were 20,232. This morning’s 5/7 sales were only 4,191 tonnes. This is 75% under last year.

U.S. meat production continues to make back gains with this week’s hog slaughter estimated at 11% under last year. Last week was -24% and the week before -35%.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 15.07 and select up 0.16.  The Feeder cattle index is 123.95.  Pork cut-out values were down 3.42.

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