Traders Turn to Weather

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 12, 2020.

Grain Markets are mixed to end the data-filled trading week. With the USDA report now out of the way, traders will monitor the latest in weather forecast as they look to the end of month Grain Stocks and Acreage reports.

USDA Supply and Demand numbers had old crop corn ending stocks raised from 2.098 billion to 2.103. Trader were expecting 2.150 billion. New crop stocks were revised from 3.318 billion to 3.323, under the 3.360 billion estimate. Old crop soybean stocks were raised from 580 to 585 million bushels. The average trade guess was 577. New crop stocks were lowered from 405 million to now 395. The trade was expecting an increase to 426.

Old crop wheat stocks were raised from 978 to 983 million bushels. New crop was increased from 909 to 925 million. The trade was expecting a decline to 897. World wheat stocks/use to now 42.0% This is a record level of burden for the world situation.

Weekly export sales had corn export sales of 686,665 metric tonnes, 660,727 for old and 23,938 for new crop. Soybean sales totaled 2,216,226 metric tonnes, 1,003,682 for old and 1,212,544 for new (both records for this week). Wheat sales were reported at 270,000 tonnes (all 2020/21).

Renewable Fuels Association President Geoff Cooper said that the RFA has been in communication with both major U.S. presidential campaigns to discuss policy fixes for the biofuels industry.

Strategie Grains lowered its estimate for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the E.U. by 2 million tonnes to 130.9 million citing hot, dry Spring weather.

IKAR raised its estimate for Russia’s wheat crop to 78.0 million tonnes from 75.6 million tonnes. The see the country’s wheat exports at 35 million tonnes for the current marketing year, an increase of 1 million tonnes from their previous estimate.

USDA added 910 million lbs. to its 2020 beef production estimate, now at 26.674 billion. This would be 1.8% under last year. USDA added back in 330 million lbs. to its 2020 pork production forecast, now at 27.766 billion lbs. This forecast is 0.5% over last year.

Weekly beef exports were quite strong at 20,374 metric tonnes. That’s the largest in 12 weeks. It was 24% over last year in the same week. Pork export sales were reported at 17,209 tonnes, still 25% under last year.

Actual Slaughter report showed steer weights two weeks prior at +5.8% year/year and heifers at +6.0%. US hog weights at 1.4% over last year, down from the prior week’s +1.9%.

June hog futures expire today at noon.

Dressed beef values were lower again with choice down 0.50 and select down 2.96.  The Feeder cattle index is 129.38.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.62.

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