USDA Report Estimates Begin to Enter the Market

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for December 04, 2020.

Grain Markets traded mixed overnight as estimates for the next USDA report enter the market. We expect traders to begin turning their attention to those numbers while monitoring weather forecasts in the U.S. Plains, South America, and Australia at the same time.

Allendale released estimates for next week’s USDA Supply and Demand report. We estimate 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,702 million bushels, soybeans 150 million bushels, and wheat 877 million bushels. The corn and wheat numbers would represent no change from last month, while the soybean number would be another drop. We see few changes to the world numbers.

Weekly export sales reported corn sales of 1,371,445 metric tonnes, within the 800,000 – 1,600,000 trade expectation. Soybeans sales of 406,934 metric tonnes were reported, at the low end of the 400,000 – 1,150,000 trade expectation. Wheat sales were counted at 446,384,  within the wide 250,000 – 700,000 trade expectation.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates soybean planting at 48.2% complete. They see corn plantings at 35.1% complete.

IHS Market estimates Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean crop at 132.5 million tonnes, a drop from their previous estimate of 133.5.

StatisticsCanada estimated wheat production at 35.2 million tonnes, under last year’s 36.2. That was over the trade’s 34.6 expectation.

The Trump administration issued a ban on Chinese cotton imports from the country’s Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps citing forced labor of the workforce.

China published a new draft law on management of its grain reserves on Thursday to include oversight of stocks in regions and provinces as it seeks to bolster its food security. Previous rules governing grain reserves only applied to its central state stockpiles but Beijing has this year heightened its focus on risks to food supply. (Reuters)

Nonfarm Payrolls will be out this morning at 7:30 AM CST along with Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek. Traders will monitor these reports for the latest in consumer and employment health in the U.S.

December live cattle options expire with todays close. First notice day for live cattle futures is Monday.

Steer carcass weights fell 7 pounds in the latest week to 923 pounds. Heifers rose 1 pound to 847. Hog carcass weights were unchanged this week at 217 pounds. Compared with last year they rose from +1.9% to +2.4%.

Beef export sales were noted at 13,747 tonnes for the remaining 2020 and 3,165 for 2021 shipment. Pork export sales in this week totaled 31,269 tonnes for 2020 delivery. There were 4,215 tonnes sold for 2021.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.70 and select down 3.02.  The Feeder cattle index is 139.44.  Pork cut-out values were down 3.41.

Post Archives

Allendale Insider

On The Go

Market Movers


Trader Insights

Morning Wake up Calls