Will Big Overnight Sales Continue?

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 29, 2021.

Grain Markets traded higher overnight as traders wait to see if the string of big overnight export sales will continue this morning, with hopes that China will continue buying U.S. ag products.

Thank you to all who were able to attend our Winter conference this week. Drew Lerner did a great job for us with his weather outlook, and Rich Nelson, Steve Georgy, Ryan Ettner, and Mike Lung delivered very thorough outlooks for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock. If you missed yesterday’s material, a recording is available by calling 800-262-7538 and ask for Zach.

Yesterday, another large overnight export sale was reported with 1,700,000 metric tonnes of corn sold to China for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  It followed Wednesday’s sale of 680,000 tonnes and Tuesdays 1,360,000 tonnes.

USDA’s soybean crushings report is estimated to show 193.9 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December according to a Reuters poll. The monthly oils report will be released on Monday at 2:00 PM CST.

Weekly export sales reported corn sales of 1,850,306 tonnes, above the 900,000 to 1,600,000 tonne trade estimates. Soybean sales came in at 2,030,402 metric tonnes, also exceeding analyst estimates which called for 1,050,000 to 1,950,000 tonnes. Wheat sales were 596,495 tonnes, 380,495 for current crop. That was within the 250,000 – 650,000 range.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop to 46 million tonnes, down from their 46.5 million due to hot, dry weather.

AgResource estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 128 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes below USDA’s most recent estimate.

Brazil’s National Confederation of Transport and Logistics Workers plan to strike, beginning February 1st and trucker groups are encouraging their 800,000 members to join in.

Weather models for South America remain mixed.  Area’s of Brazil are getting too much rain and that could disrupt harvest progress, as well as second corn planting progress.  Argentina will be getting rain this week but extended weather models have a much drier bias.

Euronext is developing cash-settled futures for Ukrainian wheat to cater for the growing Black Sea grain export market, the European market operator said on Thursday. (Reuters)

Today’s Bi-Annual Cattle report is expected to show All Cattle and Calves as of January 1 at 0.4% under last year. Beef cows on that date were estimated at 0.8% under last year. Beef replacement heifers were seen at -1.5%. The 2020 calf crop was estimated at -0.7% according to an Urner Barry poll.

Dressed beef values finished higher with choice up 2.33 and select up 1.89.  The Feeder cattle index is 135.34.  Pork cut-out values were up 2.38.

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