Will Chinese Buying Continue?

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 8, 2020.

Grain Markets traded mixed overnight as weather, demand, and virus questions remain. Traders will look to 8:00 AM export sales this morning to see if big buying from China will continue.

Reuters released its poll of average analyst estimates for next week’s USDA Supply and Demand report. They expect to see 2020/21 corn ending stocks at 3,389 million bushels, soybeans 430 MB, and wheat 814 MB. 2019/20 ending stocks are estimated at 2,224 MB for corn, 488 MB for soybeans, and 969 MB for wheat.

Weekly export sales reported corn export sales during this period totaled 872,154 metric tonnes, 774,632 for old and 97,522 for new crop. Soybean export sales during this period totaled 830,658 metric tonnes, 653,114 for old and 177,544 for new. Wheat export sales during this period totaled 380,112 metric tonnes, 244,792 for old and 135,340 for new.

Abiove estimates Brazil will export 77 million tonnes of soybeans this year, an increase from their previous estimate of 75.3. They see the countries soybean ending stocks at 1.87 million tonnes, and drop from the 3.6 million previous estimate.

Frosts and Freezes are expected in the Midwest this weekend, raising the concern for early planted crops and emerged wheat. Most see little risk to HRW, but SRW could be damaged.

StatsCanada estimates all-wheat seedings at 25.4 million acres, a 3.3% increase from last year. Analysts were expecting 25.3 million acres.

Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, and Unemployment Rate are all due to be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. The reports are expected to show massive job losses.

Cattle margins are being increased by CME Group effective with today’s close. Front month contracts will increase by $250 per contract to $2,400 a contract.

Actual Slaughter showed steer weights grew by 2 lbs. from 4/18 to 4/25. Heifer weights fell by 5 lbs. for the week.

Beef export sales this week were terrible at 5,249 metric tonnes. That was the lowest full-week sale of the marketing year. It was 78% under last year. Of this number China did pick up 1,384. That brings Chinese buys to 8,354 tonnes total. For US sales to all countries the number comes to 431,922 tonnes. This is 3% over last year.

Pork sales continued strong this week at 47,541 metric tonnes. It was 118% over last year, more than double.  China was quite active this week at 40,229 tonnes. China now has 464,530 total purchases for the year. Our total sales to all countries total 1,091,685 tonnes. That is 60% over last year.

Yesterday’s downside correction in hog futures filled the gap on the July, 60.70 – 61.02. The June gap is still remaining at 59.25 – 59.95.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 9.36 and select up 16.61.  The Feeder cattle index is 120.39.  Pork cut-out values were up 1.68.

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