Will Markets Cool Ahead of the Weekend?

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 23, 2020.

Grain Markets were mixed/higher overnight after seeing corn, soybeans, and wheat make multi-month and multi-year highs in recent trade. As options expire and the week comes to a close, traders will continue to monitor world weather, harvest yields, and export demand for their next move.

Last Trade for November options is today. This includes November corn, canola, wheat, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil.

Weekly corn export sales, for Oct 9 – 15, were reported at 1,831,566 metric tonnes. This was over the 800,000 – 1,400,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales of 2,225,534 metric tonnes were also reported, within the 1,500,000 – 2,500,000 trade expectation. Wheat sales of 367,455 metric tonnes were within the 200,000 – 800,000 trade estimate.

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchanged lowered its production outlook from 17.5 million tonnes to 16.8. This is even lower than last week’s revision from the Rosario Grains Exchange, 18.0 to 17.0. USDA is at 19.0 as of the latest Supply and Demand report.

CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report will be released this afternoon at 2:30 PM CDT with fund position data from October 14th through the 20th. Traders estimate funds bought 58,000 corn contracts, 20,500 soybeans, and 31,000 wheat during that timeframe.

Cattle on Feed will be out today at 2 pm Central. Estimates from Urner Barry show Oct 1 On Feed at 103.2% of last year, September placements 102.4% and September marketings 105.8%. Allendale sees those numbers at 102.7%, 98.9% and 105.2% respectively.

Cold Storage this afternoon found end of September beef stocks at 462.0 million lbs. We were expecting 470.0. Pork stocks were reported at 466.5 million lbs. We were expecting 467.7. Stocks increased 1 lb. from the prior month.

Weekly beef export sales this morning were reported at 21,717 tonnes, 57% over last year’s number. Year to date sales, 819,185 tonnes, are now 4.8% over last year. Pork export sales numbers were 26,800 tonnes. That was 39% over last year.

Germany confirmed six more wild boar with African Swine Fever. Their total is now 86.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.39 and select up 0.17.  The Feeder cattle index is 135.53.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.68.

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