Argentina Remains an Issue, Traders Turn to Thursday’s Reports. January 9, 2023
USDA's WASDE report also shows South American production revisions. The trade expects the Argentine 49.5 mt tonne estimate from USDA last month lowered to 46.7. Allendale expects -2.0 mt from USDA on Thursday to 47.5. On our personal balance sheet we are willing to drop it to 47.0. February is traditionally the main month for their soybean yield determination so we're not ready to raise the alarm for more serious production cuts for the reproductive period. The current La Nina forecast shows a 76% chance at La Nina conditions Dec - Feb, 50% Jan - Mar then neutral conditions Feb - Apr. Argentina will see mostly normal rains over the next two weeks.
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