Corn February 18, 2020
Corn trade started quite calm following the quiet overnight session mostly due to the week's corn reports suggesting there was little reason to change the sideways range. Later in the morning the USDA released a 10 year baseline projections which moved the corn lower with a very early outlook of new crop carryout estimates. That first new crop number was 2.754 which caught the attention of a few sellers helping to move corn back down to key support levels in the mid 370's.
Again, it needs to be pointed out this is the first rough estimate that trade likely won't get too excited about past seeing this number today. It was enough for a light volume setback trading in the already established range but far from enough news to take out lows. For the most part the rest of the trading day was as neutral as expected. Near the range lows there were a decent number of buyers along with some late support which may have been seen either for range trading purposes or a few light buy orders in case anything is announced from China this weekend about Ag purchases.
Short term any China news would take center stage if there is an announcement over the weekend otherwise we look to return to trading the demand reports. Longer term traders might look for more of a reaction on the USDA's Ag Forum on the 20th and 21st. Open interest now makes the May contract the new lead contract next week and that is the chart that should be watched for range support/resistance...Ryan Ettner
Bulls
Active support was seen again in the mid 370's as we have seen many times before
Once May becomes lead contract we will see what is the May level to expect support as is already established in March
Bulls will be looking for support on any China buying whether it is a corn product or other Ag market which can spill support over to corn
Bears
When looking at the May contract we see it making new lows for the move today which means a solid support level has not been found yet
If next week's Ag Forum numbers suggest a high new crop carryout number it could see moderate selling again
Bears will look for ethanol to slow further along with exports
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