Soybean February 18, 2020
Some light selling today ahead of the holiday weekend. Monday is Presidents Day and markets will be closed for the day session, but will reopen Monday night. Traders remain cautious in the face of an escalating caronavirus outbreak. China has repeatedly stated that they will be back in the market, fulfilling their obligation per "Phase One" of the trade agreement. With the 30 day grace period over it would be nice to see them moving forward over the next 10 days. I think any size purchase would be enough to restore some faith in the market. Next week the U.S. Department of Agriculture will have their annual Outlook Forum where they will release their projections for 2020 crop production.
January NOPA crush will be released when we return on Tuesday. The trade estimate of 173.748 million bushels would be 1.2% over last year. That would bring the year to date pace up to -0.2%. USDA’s goal for the year is 2.105 billion bushels for both NOPA and non-NOPA members combined. Officially we are behind USDA’s goal so far. However, we only need to run 1.2% over last year for the February – August period and we’ll meet USDA’s goal.
Brazil saw fieldwork delays as showers and thunderstorms blanketed the area, especially around Mato Grosso, southern Goias, and east central Minas Gerais. Most of the other area's remained dry. Brazil and Paraguay will continue to see regular rounds of showers over the next two weeks. No threat to crop conditions however. Argentina saw increased rain Thursday but in area's that really needed it. There will be two new rounds of rain over the next 10 days. It should be enough to maintain or improve crop conditions throughout the country.
May soybeans closed 2 3/4 cents lower, settling at $9.03 1/4. Support is at $8.99 1/2. Resistance will be at $9.08 1/2 and again at $9.17.
Have a great weekend.
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