The week starts out with continued light Brazil weather risk.

Argentina has seen great moisture improvement over the prior three weeks. As a reminder, pre-plant soil moisture deficits do not need to be corrected to get trend yields. Aside from a light planted acreage question, they are quite near trend yields right now. The two week forecast shows normal precipitation ahead. El Nino typically brings above-normal rains during our winter months, their growing season. El Nino is consistent with above trend yields for Argentine corn and soybeans. El Nino is not statistically tied to Brazilian corn and soybean yield changes. If the forecast makes the next move, to above-normal rains, we will put Argentina onto the bearish side of the ledger.

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