March Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cent for the day, but the back months were all down by 2 to 3. The main theme remains - there is a lot of wheat in the world, and USDA reminded us of that earlier this week.
USDA released the 10 year average baseline projections today. They previously released the early numbers in this report back in November. They have 2019/20 wheat ending stocks at 1,043 and 2020/21 at 950. In the industry these numbers are always taken with a grain of salt, and most will wait for the March prospective plantings report instead.
In France, 65% of their soft wheat crop was rated Good to Excellent in line with last week, but a drop from Decembers 73%. Last year in this same week the crop was rated 85% GTE.
Another issue we're regularly watching is managed money fund activity. For the week ending 02/11/2020, funds sold 6,221 contracts, but remain net long 45,940. Some in the trade have been concerned that funds will continue to liquidate their long position. After six weeks of buying though, this week's sale isn't too impressive.
Technically, the downtrend in wheat has been broken, and we see more downside coming. Without any new positive news, the market will likely drift lower. Support is at the weekly lows of 5.38 1/4, below that 516 1/4.
Chi/Kc March Spread:
Entered: (12.26.19) -80’0, Risk: -98’0, Target: 0, Current: -77’2
2nd option (less potential rolling):
Chi/Kc July Spread:
Entered: (12.26.19) -70’0, Risk: -87’4, Target: 0, Current: -62’2
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