Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates

For Immediate Release

Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates

CHICAGO, IL. (October 13, 2022) – The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.

September placements are expected -1.7% from last year at 2.127 million head. This would be the smallest September inflow in three years. Placements over the past seven months have remained quite close to last year levels averaging -0.8% year/year. September placements determine a part of March – July finished cattle supply. With fed cattle supply through Q1 determined we see no sign of USDA’s current call for -3.0% and -4.5% year/year beef production estimates for Q4 and Q1. Kansas State University estimates cattle finished from March – May require a $154 breakeven.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in September +3.8% from last year at 1.857 million. This was the largest September outflow in 19 years. There was no calendar based adjustment this month.

Total Cattle on Feed as of October 1 is estimated at 11.494 million, -0.5% from last year. This is the smallest total for this month in three years.

 

USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT

Allendale Estimate

  ON FEED OCT 1

 99.5

PLACEMENTS

                                   98.3

MARKETINGS

103.8

 

 

 

Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage of one year ago.

Allendale projects a 536 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of September. The five-year average is 548 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 4 million lb. from the previous month. Over the past five years August averaged a 12 million increase. Beef stocks, at 518 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 475. This month’s estimate represents an increase of 2 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is for a 9 million increase.

 

USDA COLD STORAGE

Last Year

Last Month

Allendale Estimate

PORK STOCKS SEP 30

469.917

532.039

536.420

BEEF STOCKS

439.621

515.676

518.098

 

Cold Storage is reported in million lbs.

For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or rnelson@allendale-inc.com.

 

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