Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates September 15, 2022
For Immediate Release
Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates
CHICAGO, IL. (September 15, 2022) – The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.
August placements are expected -2.3% from last year at 2.054 million head. This would be the lowest July inflow in three years. Placements have remained quite close to last year levels for now six months in a row. There is no sign of big supply declines set for either Q1 or Q2. August placements supply a portion of the February through June finished cattle supply. Kansas State University estimates cattle finished in those months require a $155 breakeven.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in June +5.7% from last year at 1.991 million. Due to an adjustment from a calendar difference this would be the largest August outflow in 11 years.
Total Cattle on Feed as of September 1 is estimated at 11.226 million, -0.1% from last year. This is the smallest total for this month in three years.
|
USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT |
|
|
Allendale Estimate |
|
|
ON FEED SEP 1 |
99.9 |
|
PLACEMENTS |
97.7 |
|
MARKETINGS |
105.7 |
|
|
|
Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage of one year ago.
Allendale projects a 537 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August. The five-year average is 537 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 7 million lb. from the previous month. Over the past five years August averaged a 12 million increase. Beef stocks, at 509 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 462. This month’s estimate represents a decrease of 1 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is for a 20 million increase.
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USDA COLD STORAGE |
|||
|
|
Last Year |
Last Month |
Allendale Estimate |
|
PORK STOCKS AUG 31 |
454.293 |
530.097 |
536.943 |
|
BEEF STOCKS |
414.918 |
510.841 |
509.394 |
Cold Storage is reported in million lbs.
For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or rnelson@allendale-inc.com.
More information on Allendale can be found at www.allendale-inc.com/media.
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