Allendale Releases Cattle On Feed & Cold Storage Estimates

For Immediate Release

Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates

CHICAGO, IL. (May 16, 2022) – The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.

April placements are expected -2.2% from last year at 1.781 million head. April placements supply a portion of the October through early January finished cattle supply. Kansas State University estimates cattle finished in those months require a $151 breakeven. Placements from July – March were large at +2.2% vs. prior year due to low heifer retention for the cow herd. We expect a general pattern of year over year placement declines through July as available feeder cattle not currently in feedlots decline.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in April -2.2% from last year at 1.895 million. There was a -2.1% calendar based adjustment this month.

Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is estimated at 11.936 million, +1.8% from last year. This now marks four months in a row of record feedlot inventories since the current data series from 1996. The US beef market will be well-supplied into early September.

 

USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT 

Allendale Estimate 

ON FEED MAY 1
 101.8 
PLACEMENTS 
97.8
MAREKTINGS
97.8 

 

Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage of one year ago.

Allendale projects a 510 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five-year average is 583 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 23 million lb. from the previous month. Over the past five years April averaged a 16 million increase. Beef stocks, at 541 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 458. This month’s estimate represents a decrease of 3 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is for a 15 million decrease.

 

USDA COLD STORAGE 

 

Last Year 

Last Month 

Allendale Estimate 

Pork Stocks April 30

456.921 

487.190 

509.738 

Beef Stocks

448.854 

536.887 

533.536 

Cold Storage is reported in million lbs.

For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or rnelson@allendale-inc.com.

More information on Allendale can be found at www.allendale-inc.com/media.

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