Allendale Releases Cattle On Feed & Cold Storage Estimates May 16, 2022
For Immediate Release
Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Estimates
CHICAGO, IL. (May 16, 2022) – The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.
April placements are expected -2.2% from last year at 1.781 million head. April placements supply a portion of the October through early January finished cattle supply. Kansas State University estimates cattle finished in those months require a $151 breakeven. Placements from July – March were large at +2.2% vs. prior year due to low heifer retention for the cow herd. We expect a general pattern of year over year placement declines through July as available feeder cattle not currently in feedlots decline.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in April -2.2% from last year at 1.895 million. There was a -2.1% calendar based adjustment this month.
Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is estimated at 11.936 million, +1.8% from last year. This now marks four months in a row of record feedlot inventories since the current data series from 1996. The US beef market will be well-supplied into early September.
| USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT | |
|
Allendale Estimate |
|
| ON FEED MAY 1 |
101.8
|
|
PLACEMENTS
|
97.8 |
| MAREKTINGS |
97.8
|
|
|
|
Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage of one year ago.
Allendale projects a 510 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five-year average is 583 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 23 million lb. from the previous month. Over the past five years April averaged a 16 million increase. Beef stocks, at 541 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 458. This month’s estimate represents a decrease of 3 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is for a 15 million decrease.
|
USDA COLD STORAGE |
|||
|
|
Last Year |
Last Month |
Allendale Estimate |
| Pork Stocks April 30 |
456.921 |
487.190 |
509.738 |
| Beef Stocks |
448.854 |
536.887 |
533.536 |
Cold Storage is reported in million lbs.
For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or rnelson@allendale-inc.com.
More information on Allendale can be found at www.allendale-inc.com/media.
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