Today’s two USDA reports cover both old crop and new crop information. Grain Stocks is the quarterly report showing a count of remaining old crop as of June 1. For corn and soybeans this is what is left over after three quarters of usage. For wheat, which operates on a June 1 – May 31 marketing year, this ends the old crop year. There are no numbers showing old crop production or demand in this report. Changes implied by this report will be reflected on the next WASDE set for July 12. The second report, Acreage, is USDA’s second major farmer survey of the year. 64,200 producers participated in today’s report. Of note for this report, different than the March Prospective Plantings, this report held both a planted and harvested estimate.
2021/22: Old crop left over as of June 1 was estimated at 4.346 billion by USDA. This was next to the 4.343 trade expectation (ALDL 4.396). This report is important for corn as it helps us compute March – May feed/residual, a demand category that has no weekly or monthly reports to monitor. With known exports and corn for ethanol usage in the prior quarter this implies Q3 feed/residual at 912 million. This is within the 876 million to 1.118 billion range for this quarter in the prior three years. We see no impact for old crop on the coming 7/12 report from this information.
2022/23: USDA’s re-survey effort found corn planting at 89.921 million acres. This was next to the 89.861 trade (ALDL 89.642). This increase over the March survey, 431,000 acres, was right on the dot. Harvested acreage was seen at 81.940 million. USDA was using 81.7 on the prior 6/10 WASDE. This higher acreage, using USDA’s latest 177.0 bpa implies 14.502 billion for production. That is 42 million over the June WASDE production estimate. They will slightly raise production and stocks on the coming July WASDE. Allendale holds a higher yield than USDA, -1% from trend, at 179.2. We have production at 14.683 billion and stocks at 1.479 billion. We currently see December corn economic value at 575. If there is a moderate weather problem, -4% from trend with 173.8 bpa, we only have stocks falling to 1.209 which represents 630 for pricing.
2021/23: USDA counted old crop stocks as of June 1 at 971 million bushels. That was next to the 965 trade estimate (ALDL 977). With known exports and domestic crush for the prior quarter this implies Q3 seed/feed/residual at 97 million. The prior three years saw 76 to 113 million for this category. We see no change to USDA’s old crop WASDE numbers from this report.
2022/23: Soybean plantings were re-surveyed at 88.325 million. That was under the 90.446 trade estimate (ALDL 92.375). It represents a 2.6 million acre decline from the March survey. Harvested acres were pegged at 87.511 million, under the 90.1 estimate USDA used on the 6/10 WASDE. This new harvested number, and using USDA’s 51.5 trend yield, would imply production of 4.507 billion. That is 133 million under their latest WASDE estimate. This production change does impact the new crop balance sheet. Allendale, using 51.5 bpa trend yields, sees stocks at 208 million which implies 1380 for November soybeans economic value. A minor 2% deviation on yields returns 158 for stocks and 1495 for price.
2021/22: USDA counted June 1 US wheat stocks at 660 million bushels. That was just over the 655 trade estimate (ALDL 670). This report wraps up the completed old crop marketing year. USDA’s prior estimate on the 6/10 WASDE was 655.
2022/23: Wheat acreage was a moderate surprise. The all-wheat total of 47.092 million was just over the 47.017 trade estimate (ALDL 47.066). All-wheat increased by 259,000 over the March survey. The surprise came with the mix. Winter wheat, which has already had two prior farmer surveys, was revised from 34.236 million in March to 34.006. The trade expected a revision higher. Other spring is where the interest is after this spring’s poor planting in the Northern Plains. USDA suggested 11.110 million for this year, over the 10.844 trade estimate and only -90,000 acres from March. Durum wheat, 1.976 million acres, actually saw an increase over the 1.915 March survey. These are all planting numbers. As part of today’s news USDA also released a 37.622 million harvested estimate, 79.9% harvested. That was over the 37.1 USDA used on the 6/10 WASDE at 78.4%. USDA did say they would review Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota acreage for the August 12 WASDE. Though the trade will not believe USDA’s spring wheat numbers today, it will be reflected on the July balance sheet ahead. A minor 24 million bushel implied increase for production would slightly increase their June stock number of 619. Wheat pricing has not been tied to the US balance sheet in recent months. We would suggest another week or two before a seasonal harvest low is posted.